China’s New Leadership - Hopes for Reform and Fear of Uncertainty by Professor Athar Hussain, Dr Debin Ma and Professor Arne Westad, LSE

China is quickly rising to be one of the most influential and powerful countries in the world, in terms of their economy and grasp on the world’s markets, such as being one of the largest exporters of goods. China have also recently experienced a slight change in leadership, which raises some eyebrows globally, as China have an unprecedented amount of control in the affairs and decisions of many nations around the world. This lecture gave the analysis of these changes and their significance, from three well-recognised experts in this field.

One of the main focal points of the lecture was how this new leadership is going to deal with the prospect of China’s growth slowing down after decades of sharp increases in growth of their entire economy. This is most apparent after figures and predictions suggest that China could soon experience a slow down in growth and perhaps even the risk of economic collapse. This speculation and predictions can be measured against the graph of the Business Cycle:

The Business cycle would suggest that China would inevitably experience a downturn or in this specific graph a recession, sourced from: http://monevator.com/wpcontent/uploads/2009/05/businesscycle_1.jpg

However, as was pointed out during the lecture these predictions of China’s economy collapsing and a slow down in growth have been stated for many years, making these claims less plausible.

Furthermore, another issue that this new leadership will have to overcome is the rapid urbanisation of China with now more than 51% of people living in cities, which has dramatically increased from amount of people who lived in cities twenty years ago. This urbanisation is occurring at such a rate, due to the substantial advancements in China’s economy and technology, enabling the eradication of domestic issues such as poverty, which was rife in China a mere thirty years ago. This quick urbanisation, however may also have negative consequences, as was expressed in the lecture. It is most evident with the growing rates of inequality in China following their fast growth rates. This will obviously be a grave concern for the new China’s leadership. However in this scenario, slow growth rates could be argued would greatly benefit China, as the problem of inequality would be less of a concern.

Moreover, another issue the new leadership of China will have to face is “What will China do next?” China has evolved from a country stricken with poverty and disease to a bustling, wealthy and urbanised nation in the space of thirty years, which is extraordinary. However, in the process China has gained tremendous power, for example they export significant quantities of goods across the world and as a consequence their economy is now booming. Therefore, as was discussed in the lecture, this new leadership of China ought to consider this and the image they portray to other countries, especially their neighbours.

In conclusion, Professor Athar Hussain, Dr Debin Ma and Professor Arne Westad provided a stimulating discussion regarding the new leadership of China and the impacts of this on their economy. It is clearly apparent that China’s new leadership has many challenges ahead. However, how could the government of one of the most powerful nations on Earth, not have any challenges and obstacles?